Intervjuud Hayek’iga – füüsikast kui lihtsate nähtuste teadusest
My real aim was that the possible aims of science must be much more limited once we’ve passed from the science of simple phenomena to the science of complex phenomena. And there people bitterly resented that I would call physics a science of simple phenomena, which is partly a misunderstanding, because the theory of physics ends in terms of very simple equations. But that the active phenomena to which you have to apply it may be extremely complex is a different matter. The models of physical theory are very simple, indeed.
So far as the field of probability, that’s another part. But it is this intermediate field, which we have in the social sciences, where the elements which have to be taken into account are neither few enough that you can know them all, nor a sufficiently large number that you can substitute probabilities for the new information.
The intermediate phenomena field is a difficult one. That’s a field with which we have to deal both in biology and the social sciences. And they’re complex. They become, I believe, an absolute barrier to the specificity of predictions that we can arrive at. Until people learn themselves that they can’t achieve these ends, they will insist on trying. They will think that somebody who does not believe [this specificity can be achieved] is just old-fashioned and doesn’t understand modern science.
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