VABALOG

Majandusteadlased mänguteooria rakendamisest

Aumanni ja Schellingi Nobeli preemia on põhjust andnud huvitavaks vestluseks blogosfääris sellest, kas ja millises ulatuses on mänguteooria rakendatav ja kohaldatav reaalsele maailmale.

Kõigepealt Michael Mendle Businessweeki’s:

Game theory tries to use the principle of rationality to explain conflict and cooperation in a wide range of economic and social situations. For example, game theory has been used to analyze why the apparently insane buildup of nuclear weapons in the postwar period was actually a rational method of deterring war, and why aggressive price-cutting by airlines was an effective means of deterring competition.

Game theory is no doubt wonderful for telling stories. However, it flunks the main test of any scientific theory: The ability to make empirically testable predictions. In most real-life situations, many different outcomes — from full cooperation to near-disastrous conflict — are consistent with the game-theory version of rationality.

siis Tyler Cowen selgitab Marginal Revolutionis vastu, milles mänguteooria kasu seisneb:

1. Behavioral approaches will flesh out how humans actually behave. Game theory will end up with clear predictions, just give it time.

2. Computational approaches will flesh out how humans actually behave. Game theory will end up with clear predictions, just give it time.

3. Evolutionary approaches will flesh out how humans actually behave. Game theory will end up with clear predictions, just give it time.

4. Experimental approaches will flesh out how humans actually behave. Game theory will end up with clear predictions, just give it time.

5. The real world is in fact indeterminate or close to indeterminate. The indeterminacy and multiple equilibria of game theory are not a problem, but rather reflect how closely the theory mirrors reality. Yes you might prefer sharp, clear predictions, but tough tiddlywinks, you’re not going to get them. Faithfulness to reality is more important than fulfilling abstract methodological strictures.

Coweni postitust selgitab Russel Roberts (varem oli minu poolt ekslikult märgitud Don Boudreuax) kes peatub ka sellele, miks konkurentsitingimustes mänguteooria hätta jääb:

The problem is that game theory can organize your thinking the wrong way because it tends to cause its users to underestimate the power of competition. I assume this is a result of taking payoffs as given when in fact they are often endogenous and affected by market forces.

Boonusena võib lugeda Daniel Drezneri ja Lynne Kieslingu kommentaare.

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