Iirimaa eduloo lõpp?
Iirimaa edusammud viimase paarikümne aasta jooksul pole kellelgi märkamata jäänud, kuid tõenäoliselt ei arvanud keegi, et neil aegade lõpuni hästi läheb. Iga juhul on viimase aasta arengud piisavalt problemaatilised, et lõpuks pälvida mõne suurema väljaande tähelepanu nagu
BusinessWeek’i Ireland: The End of the Miracle annab lühikese ülevaate arengutest ja trendidest ning näeb Iirimaa probleemide taga pigem Eurot, mille madalad intressid põhjustasid Iirimaal paljuski sarnase olukorra sellele, mis Eestis:
The average house price topped $490,000 at the beginning of last year, an increase of more than 300% in just over a decade, compared with 130% in the U.S. Two years ago residential building accounted for more than 12% of the Irish economy, with over 90,000 new homes constructed. According to the Economic & Social Research Institute, that was double what the country needed.
Home prices fell by 7% in 2007 and should drop further this year. “There are a lot of people who bought at the top in 2006 who are now in negative equity and don’t even realize it,” says Karl Deeter, co-founder of Irish Mortgage Brokers in Dublin. Davy, a Dublin brokerage, predicts a net loss of 20,000 construction jobs this year.
BusinessWeek’i lugu lõppeb sellega, et kui Iirimaa ei oleks eurotsoonis, siis oleks neil vähemalt intressimääradega võimalik problemaatilist olukorda leevendada. Samas on USA praeguse olukorra tagamaad paljuski just varasemate perioodide intressimäärade langetamise tulemus olukorras, kus kiire ja ebamugav korrektsioon oleks võimaldanud tänastest probleemidest hoiduda.
Stefan Karlsson on aga viimaste nädalate jooksul Iirimaa olukorda kahel korral lahanud. Esimesel korral juhtis ta tähelepanu sellele, et kuigi Iirimaa ei saa ise intressimäärasid langetada, siis see võib (nende õnneks) luua olukorra, kus pikem virelemisperiood asendub valusama kuid kiire kohanemisega, mille järel majanduskasv taastub:
There are thus good reasons to blame Ireland’s problems on EMU (given the ECB’s inflationary policies), but not because it stops them from inflating more now but because it have compelled them to inflate too much in the past. They thus arguably should not have joined in 1999, but withdrawing at this point is not a good idea. Ultimately, the only way for EMU to work in the long run is if it becomes less inflationary than it has been so far.
Enda teises postituses annab Stefan teada, et Iirimaa on ametlikult (kaks kvartalit järjest) jõudnud majanduslanguse faasi, kus majandustegevus tõmbub kokku:
What the numbers show is that volume GNP in the fourth quarter of 2007 is up a mere 1.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2006. What’s worse, the quarterly GNP contracted a full 2.2%, i.e. nearly 9% at an annual rate. Quarterly GDP contracted 0.8%, or more than 3% at an annual rate. So there can be little doubt that economic activity in Ireland contracted during the fourth quarter of 2007.
Looking at the details, you can see a dramatic decline in fixed investments in general and residential investments in particular. Private consumption seems to be holding up, but one can question how sustainable that is. What is even more worrisome is the rapid increase in government spending. That is certainly not sound from a long term perspective and this implies that private economic activity is faring even worse than the GDP/GNP numbers suggest.
Eks eestlastelgi ole siit omi järeldusi teha, mis on seotud just avaliku sektori kulutuste kärpimisega.
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