Teised tragöödiast nimega Kreeka

Claus Vistesen, kes viitab ka enda värskele artiklile, ei näe valgust tunneli lõpus:

Well, to me Greece is doomed and while this may sound excessively alarmist I see no way out for this economy. The real nutbreaker will be whether Portugal and Spain are the next one to follow. One default and you blame the defaultee, three and you blame the system and it is exactly the imminent risk of the second (almost unthinkable) scenario that I recently dealt with in a more lenghty format.

Edward Hugh, kes kahtleb hispaanlaste töötute protsendis ja otsib vastust lisaks migratsioonile ka andmete kajastamisest:

Basically since last September, when you could say that the funny things happening with Spain’s unemployment data got even funnier, a seasonally adjusted 189,000 people have stopped contributing to the social security system (by March, see above chart). This represents something like 1.06% of total employment, so how the hell, we might like to ask ourselves, can estimated unemployment have only risen by 0.1%? Especially when, and according to the Labour Ministry’s own data, the economically active population has risen by a seasonally adjusted 35,000 over the last six months. Something, somewhere just doesn’t fit here.

Charles Wyplosz, kes on ka Eestis laialt levinud makroökonoomika õpiku autor, ei näe väljapääsu:

The plan will not work. Greece is supposed to reduce its deficit by 11% of GDP in three years. This would have been a tall order of requirement if the recovery was going to be strong. The drop in public spending, along with the psychological impact of the crisis, will provoke a profound recession that will deepen the deficit. This, along with the social and political impact of the crisis, will undoubtedly prevent the Greek government from delivering on its commitments. What will be done then? The IMF has the option of suspending its disbursements and forcing a default, as it did with Argentina. The EU governments, facing another loss of face (after letting the IMF into the den), may be tempted by forbearance. If they do, they will eventually to put in more money. If they don’t, the Greek government will default, precisely what the whole plan aims at avoiding.

Walter Russel Mead, kes pakub kiire ülevaate Kreeka valitsejatest viimase 200 aasta jooksul ja proovib mõista Kreekat laiemas kontekstis:

Whatever happens in Greece, we need to remember that its problems are not unique, and the clash between those who like the world that capitalism has made and those who hate it is not going away. The global capitalist revolution offers the best and indeed the only hope that I see for the relief of poverty, the advance of human rights and the protection of the environment worldwide. Like all great revolutionary movements, however, it creates divisions, inequalities and resistance. Revolts against the liberal capitalist world system — fascism and communism above all — shaped the history of the twentieth century and inflicted unprecedented misery and harm until they were defeated. The radical terrorist movement led by Islamic renegades has more recently inflicted grave harm in many places and its violent course has not yet come to an end; we are likely to see more crises and conflict in the twenty first century as the anti-capitalist counter-revolution finds new forms and new allies.

Lihtsalt natuke mõtteainet hiljutise Kreeka abipaketi eufooria kõrvale.

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