Tööstustoodangu tasemest ja töötusest meil võrreldes teistega
Paul Krugman kirjutab New York Times’i pikemas artiklis rahaliidu probleemidest Euroopas. Päris hästi kirjutab ja pakub Euroopa jaoks välja ka neli stsenaariumi, millest esimese näitena toob välja Eesti, Läti ja Leedu:
The Baltic nations have, to some extent, succeeded in reassuring markets, which now consider them less risky than Ireland, let alone Greece. Meanwhile, wages have come down, declining 15 percent in Latvia and more than 10 percent in Lithuania and Estonia. All of this has, however, come at immense cost: the Baltics have experienced Depression-level declines in output and employment. It’s true that they’re now growing again, but all indications are that it will be many years before they make up the lost ground.
It says something about the current state of Europe that many officials regard the Baltics as a success story. I find myself quoting Tacitus: “They make a desert and call it peace” — or, in this case, adjustment. Still, this is one way the euro zone could survive intact.
Ma märkisin rasvase kirjaga selle osa, mis tegelikult vajaks oluliselt rohkem lahti seletamist. Ma oletan, et Krugman peab “output”-i all silmas tööstustoodangut, kuid nagu võis lugeda (ja ka näha) Edward Hugh eilsest postitusest And Then There Were Seventeen…. on Eesti tööstustoodangu tase taastunud peaaegu kriisieelsele tasemele:
Estonia’s economy fell by around 18% during the crisis, while Spain’s has so far has fallen only by something like 7%, yet Estonia’s industrial output is now almost back to where it was before the crisis started, while Spain’s has fallen but so far not recovered. No sign of even the tiniest green shoot.
Hugh juhib enda postituses tähelepanu ka meid tema hinnangul alles ees ootavatele probleemidele, kuid möödapääsmatuks tõsiasjaks jääb, et praegu pole erilist põhjust võrdlusteks USA 1930. aastate olukorraga. Jääb üle ainult töötusetase, mis ka Hugh hinnangul on Eestis jätkuvalt kõrge, kuid siinkohal oleks ehk põhjust viidata Brad DeLong’i hiljutisele postitusele The End of Procyclical Labor Productivity?:
The standard relationship between output growth and hours worked has gone substantially awry. See that branch poking out of the scatter diagram on the left side? That’s the most recent data. (The smaller twig pointing out below and to the left of the branch is from the early-1990s recession and recovery.)
The fact that falling hours have been accompanied by rapidly-rising productivity is what has given us not a jobless recovery but a massive job-loss recovery. The normal pattern we would expect from the past two years’ output growth would be that employment and hours would have been nearly flat. Why the different pattern this time? We think that it is because firms are no longer “hoarding labor” when times are slack because the industries losing jobs no longer expect employment to bounce back.
This means that we no longer have any confidence that we understand the cyclical pattern of productivity growth–which means that we have little ability to translate the (high) productivity growth numbers we see into information about what the underlying long-run trend growth rate of the economy is.
Eestiga seostamiseks vajab eelnev mõistagi mõningat silumist, kuid põhimõtte jääb samaks, sest meie tööturg on suhteliselt paindlik samas kui ehitussektori näol on üks suuremaid tööandjaid (eriti väheste oskustega ja haridusega meestele) ära langenud. Kui ekspordile suunatud ettevõtted välja jätta, siis saame olukorra, kus töötuse kõrge tase on peamiselt seletatav, kas sobiva hariduse, oskuste või vanusega. Varasema majanduskasvu harjal oli neid töötajaid võimalik veel kasumlikult rakendada, kuid ainult teatud piirini. Tyler Cowen selgitas olukorra dünaamikat hiljuti päris elegantselt:
A worker who wasn’t worth much sweeping up the back room is suddenly valuable when new orders are flowing in and he is needed to ship the goods out the door. And if all those new orders require keeping the warehouse open late, the company may need to bring in a new night watchman. To paraphrase a common metaphor, a rising tide eventually lifts most boats. When the economy’s expanding, a worker who previously was worthless will at some point become valuable again. But this means that workers at the bottom of the economic ladder will have to wait until the entire economy has mended itself before they have the chance to improve their lot: That can be a painstakingly slow and uncertain process.
Minu paljuski subjektiivsel hinnangul moodustavad töötutest umbes 2/3 need, kes muutuvad väärtuslikuks tööjõuks alles kõrgema ja pikaajalisema majanduskasvu tingimustes. Need on lihtsamate tööde tegijad, kes on suht jäigad erinevate tingimuste (palk, töö asukoht, töö aeg, valdkond) osas või kelle varasem inimkapital on muutuvas keskkonnas oluliselt devalveerunud või kelle inimkapital pole veel üldse jõudnud akumuleeruda. Kahetsusväärne, kuid paljuski möödapääsmatu olukord, kus rohkem oleneb inimestest endist kui riiklikust poliitikast.
Miks aga viidata eelkõige Krugmanile, Hugh’le ja DeLongile? Eks ikka sellepärast, et natuke enda maailmavaatelistest eelistustest kaugemale kiikamine annab ehk terviklikuma pildi ja annab võimaluse Krugman’i retoorikast natuke õhku välja lasta:
Iceland took advantage of the fact that it had not joined the euro and still had its own currency. It soon became more competitive by letting its currency drop sharply against other currencies, including the euro. Iceland’s wages and prices quickly fell about 40 percent relative to those of its trading partners, sparking a rise in exports and fall in imports that helped offset the blow from the banking collapse.
The combination of default and devaluation has helped Iceland limit the damage from its banking disaster. In fact, in terms of employment and output, Iceland has done somewhat better than Ireland and much better than the Baltic nations.
Vastukaaluks valik kolmest graafikust, mis aitavad ehk mõnevõrra lahti mõtestada, miks Krugman kipub arvama, et Eestil on läinud oluliselt halvemini kui Islandil: Post-Crisis Iceland: Miracle or Illusion? Stefan Karlsson lisab omad kommentaarid postituses Icelandic Devaluation Role Model Melts Down.
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