Jaapani riigivõla finantseerimine pärast katastroofi
Jaapanis on tohutu akumuleeritud rikkus. Jaapanlased on kokkuhoidja rahvas. Viimase nelja kümnendi andmeid vaadates on nad parimatel aastatel kõrvale pannud 30-40 protsenti oma sisemajanduse kogutoodangust.
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See on väga keeruline küsimus. Nende riigivõlg küünib 180 protsendini SKTst juba praegu. Jaapani suur probleem on elanikkonna vananemine, mis toimus väga kiiresti. See tähendab, et surve avaliku sektori rahastamisele on väga tugev nagunii. Maksumaksjate suhteline osatähtsus on kogu aeg vähenenud.
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Võla asjus on küsimus finantsturgude usalduses Jaapani vastu. Ma arvan, et maailma finantssektor ei usu, et Jaapan hakkaks mingite rumalustega tegelema ja muutuks maksujõuetuks. Nende rahvuslik rikkus on siiski nii suur, et olukord on hoopis teine kui mõne pisikese riigiga, nagu Kreeka või Iirimaa. Jaapan on siiski maailmas suuruselt kolmas majandus.
Robert Peston enda BBC blogis:
In the current circumstances where Japanese people and institutions face a huge test of their resolve, they may be more determined than ever to lend to the government – as an act of solidarity, as a tangible sign of the collective will to reconstruct their country.
But even so, the Japanese government is in a hideous position, under pressure from markets to cut borrowing at just the time when the imperative of rebuilding the country will require a massive deployment of government money.
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The sum that Japan needs to borrow this year is the kind of number that boggles the brain: if you add together both the maturing debt that needs to be repaid and new borrowing to finance the deficit, Japan needs to borrow around a third of its $5.5 trillion GDP, excluding very short term debt, or more than half its GDP including short term debt.
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According to IMF figures, the ratio of general government gross debt to GDP was set to reach 228% this year, and 233% in 2012, even before taking any account of the costs of reconstructing the area devastated by the quake and tsunami. The gap between government revenues and expenditure for 2011 is forecast at more than 9%.
Tajun teatavat ebakõla allikate vahel.
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