Radikaalseid ideid euroala võlakriisi lahendamiseks
Ilmselt on kõik, kes teema vastu huvi tunnevad juba teadlikud esialgsest ja veel täiesti kinnitamata ja üldse mitte arutlusel olevast ja poliitiliselt keerulisest plaanist, mida keegi ametlikult ei kinnita, millega EFSF’i garantiid võidakse paisutada 2 triljoni euroni:
First, Europe’s banks would have to be recapitalised with many tens of billions of euros to reassure markets that a Greek or Portuguese default would not precipitate a systemic financial crisis. The recapitalisation plan would go much further than the €2.5bn (£2.2bn) required by regulators following the European bank stress tests in July and crucially would include the under-pressure French lenders.
The second leg of the plan is to bolster the EFSF. Economists have estimated it would need about Eu2 trillion of firepower to meet Italy and Spain’s financing needs in the event that the two countries were shut out of the markets. Officials are working on a way to leverage the EFSF through the European Central Bank to reach the target.
Numbrid paisuvad sedavõrd suureks, et märksa tõsisemalt peaks suhtuma hakkama ka oluliselt radikaalsematesse ideedesse, mis pole tõenäoliselt rahvusliku uhkuse tõttu teostatavad ent väärivad siiski enda julguse poolest tähelepanu. Tyler Cowen pakub välja ühe taolise mõtte:
Give the United States Federal Reserve System the power to create euros at will, at its discretion, subject to no outside checks. This power may last for a specified number of years or who knows, maybe forever.
The Fed’s incentive is not exactly to maximize European social welfare, but it is probably close enough. The Fed’s incentive is to prevent contagion from spreading to the United States and its banking system. Toward this end it would create euros and distribute them to various European banking systems, or lend them out, do more swaps, etc. It would help Europe but in a fairly balanced way, in particular the Fed probably would not “screw over” the major U.S. allies on the Continent, namely France and Germany.
Cowen’i postitus on lühike, kuid selle eest provokatiivne diskussioonialgataja.
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