Edward Hugh halastamatult Baltikumist
In my view the threat to the Baltic financial systems is real, as is the threat to the Bulgarian and Romanian ones. Action, of some form or another needs to be taken, and soon. Latvia and Estonia are now in deep recessions, and Lithuania, while still clinging on to growth, can’t be far behind. Basically it is hard to see any revival in domestic demand in the immediate future, which means these countries now need to live from exports. But with the very high inflation they have had it is hard to see how they can restore competitiveness while retaining their currency pegs to the euro. The IMF will almost certainly insist on a currency float as a condition of rescue, and if you look at the speeches of Lorenzo Bini Smaghi and Jürgen Stark over the last year, it is clear that thinking at the ECB runs along pretty much the same lines. So better get it over and done with now I would say, and take advantage of the shelter offered in the arms of the IMF. Indeed the more I look at what is happening, the more it would appear that a division of labour was agreed to in Paris last weekend, with the EU institutional structure sorting out the mess in Ireland and the South of Europe, and the IMF taking care of all that broken crockery out there in the EU10.
Edward Hugh ütleb, mis ta mõtleb. Seda peab vist natuke seedima. Kas ei tormata mitte natuke asjade käigust ette? Saab näha kui tihedalt hakkab IMF kohalike instansidega suhtlema.
Claus Vistesen lahkab samuti Baltikumi olukorra tagamaid ja arutleb võimalike arengustsenaariumite üle. Karge ja virgastav lugemine, mis paneb mõtlema.
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